Culture and emotion drive Toyota stock rebound.
As the recalls accumulated, Toyota stock never hit the $52 year-to-date low. Opening today in the mid-seventies, many stock-market analysts have predicted Toyota will recover quickly and return 10% annually over the next few years. Is this simply shrewd profiteering by industry insiders comfortable in the history of this international, multi-dimensional company or emotional stock buying in an anti-American car mindset?
“The answer,” says Dr. Samuel Sarri, Professor of Economics, Finance, and Philosophy at College of Southern Nevada, “is in the American public’s belief that the Japanese culture of commitment to quality, expertise and empowerment are traditions of national pride that will continue to drive the globalization of Toyota manufacturing, sales and finance success worldwide for years to come”.
What about the scores of accusations that Toyota failed to admit the problems known to some for over five years? “American’s are so consumed by the belief that Japan does it better, they will argue the US governments investment in General Motors and Chrysler is manipulating the story, as they discount the domestic product and stock, without thorough consideration.” Sarri continues.
While 25% of recent car shoppers polled by Kelly Blue Book reportedly considered a Ford or GM model, how many actually bought one over the Toyota remains to be seen in February sales figures, to be reported in March. Toyota has repeatedly garnered the automotive awards for style, technology and innovation.
I asked Dr. Sam about this mental-block cracking; “Dr. Edward Deming, (the American most credited with teaching the Japanese about manufacturing, quality control and marketing) has impacted the automotive industry like no other individual, yet, while the Detroit Big 3 have instituted similar process models, only Ford has shown a history of consistent quality-control recognition to interest the consumer.”
When asked who Sarri thought was the new Deming in the automotive world of the future? Mike Jackson, President of AutoNation, Lee Iacocca, former CEO of Chrysler and Mike Mulally, CEO of Ford came to mind, however, only Ford has seen the benefit of their new technology, marketing and design in stock value.
“So, is there an emotional herd mentality pushing Ford stock to its year high of $12.00 from $1.00?” I asked the professor, “Yes, in the case of Ford it’s all upward motion but both Toyota and Ford will show gains in the next few years.” Given the tenuous memory and loyalty of the American consumer I propose the idea of buying both companies stock, although the Ford at $11.00 today, seems the better deal for my wallet.
Dr. Sam’s response,“Follow Warren Buffett and Sir John Templeton’s advice: Buy Low, Sell High and stick with solid companies demonstrating good management principles for the long term. Diversify your portfolio with a little stock of both automakers and if you can’t buy-in for the minimum 100 shares, go with a no-load mutual fund covering the auto industry.”
SARAH LEE MARKS Interviewed Dr. Samuel Sarri 2/10/10 for this article. ©2010]]>
